Applications of Bayesian Networks as Decision Support Tools for Water Resource Management under Climate Change and Socio-Economic Stressors: A Critical Appraisal

Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely implemented as graphical decision support tools which use probability inferences to generate “what if?” and “which is best?” analyses of potential management options for water resource management, under climate change and socio-economic stressors. This paper presents a systematic quantitative literature review of applications of BNs for decision support in water resource management. The review quantifies to what extent different types of data (quantitative and/or qualitative) are used, to what extent optimization-based and/or scenario-based approaches are adopted for decision support, and to what extent different categories of adaptation measures are evaluated. Most reviewed publications applied scenario-based approaches (68%) to evaluate the performance of management measures, whilst relatively few studies (18%) applied optimization-based approaches to optimize management measures. Institutional and social measures (62%) were mostly applied to the management of water-related concerns, followed by technological and engineered measures (47%), and ecosystem-based measures (37%). There was no significant difference in the use of quantitative and/or qualitative data across different decision support approaches (p = 0.54), or in the evaluation of different categories of management measures (p = 0.25). However, there was significant dependence (p = 0.076) between the types of management measure(s) evaluated, and the decision support approaches used for that evaluation. The potential and limitations of BN applications as decision support systems are discussed along with solutions and recommendations, thereby further facilitating the application of this promising decision support tool for future research priorities and challenges surrounding uncertain and complex water resource systems driven by multiple interactions amongst climatic and non-climatic changes. View Full-Tex

An integrated approach for predicting the occurrence probability of an elusive species: the Southwest China serow

Context: Understanding the environmental factors influencing the occurrence of wildlife has become increasingly important, contributing to better conservation actions for threatened species. Aims: We aimed to understand the factors that influence the occurrence probability of the Southwest China serow (Capricornis milneedwardsii), a threatened species, thereby developing conservation interventions to save the species from local extirpation on the Cat Ba Archipelago, Vietnam. Methods: An integrated approach, including literature reviews, interviews, field surveys, logistic generalised linear models and Bayesian networks, was applied to identify environmental variables and species occurrence, and model the occurrence probability of the species. Sensitivity analysis and scenarios were also performed to identify the influence of environmental variables on the probability of the species occurrence. Key results: Distance to ranger station was found to be the most influential factor on serow occurrence, followed by total forest, distance to village, steepness and elevation. Hunting pressure has probably forced serows to inhabit the areas where they are well protected, and this need probably over-rides the effect of ecological variables. Conclusion: Through combing knowledge of forest rangers and members of forest-protection groups, field surveys and logistic generalised linear models, a Bayesian network was developed to predict the occurrence probability of the threatened Southwest China serow on the Cat Ba Archipelago for conservation actions. The modelling results and findings from the present study provided further understanding of the relationships between environmental factors and the probability of the species occurrence, which have been rarely studied throughout the range of this species. Implications: The modelling predictions give managers basic information for conservation and recovery planning in situations where integrated conservation interventions should be urgently conducted to save the threatened species from local extirpation

Application of manures to mitigate the harmful effects of electrokinetic remediation of heavy metals on soil microbial properties in polluted soils

Hosseini Bai, S ORCiD: 0000-0001-8646-6423Ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) used with electrokinetic (EK) to remediate heavy metal-polluted soils is a toxic chelate for soil microorganisms. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the effects of alternative organic chelates to EDTA on improving the microbial properties of a heavy metal-polluted soil subjected to EK. Cow manure extract (CME), poultry manure extract (PME) and EDTA were applied to a lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn)-polluted calcareous soil which were subjected to two electric intensities (1.1 and 3.3 v/cm). Soil carbon pools, microbial activity, microbial abundance (e.g., fungal, actinomycetes and bacterial abundances) and diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA)-extractable Pb and Zn (available forms) were assessed in both cathodic and anodic soils. Applying the EK to soil decreased all the microbial variables in the cathodic and anodic soils in the absence or presence of chelates. Both CME and PME applied with two electric intensities decreased the negative effect of EK on soil microbial variables. The lowest values of soil microbial variables were observed when EK was combined with EDTA. The following order was observed in values of soil microbial variables after treating with EK and chelates: EK + CME or EK + PME > EK > EK + EDTA. The CME and PME could increase the concentrations of available Pb and Zn, although the increase was less than that of EDTA. Overall, despite increasing soil available Pb and Zn, the combination of EK with manures (CME or PME) mitigated the negative effects of using EK on soil microbial properties. This study suggested that the synthetic chelates such as EDTA could be replaced with manures to alleviate the environmental risks of EK application. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany

A systemic approach to understand the conservation status and viability of the critically endangered Cat Ba Langur

Wildlife conservation is a dynamically complex system, linking seemingly disparate biological and cultural components. This article offers policy professionals an illustration of how a dynamically complex system was diagnosed by applying the system dynamics approach. An integrated method was applied to develop a causal loop diagram, showing the interconnected variables within the system, relating to the conservation status and viability of Cat Ba Langur. Rural poverty, low livelihoods options, human population growth, inappropriate tourism planning and weak management capacity are challenges that have prevented the langur population from increasing over the last decades. Tragedy of commons and shifting the burden systems archetypes were identified and then leverage points for saving the species were proposed. A shift towards the systems perspective of viewing wildlife conservation as the dynamically complex system enables decision-makers to avoid the unintended consequences emerging from the linear thinking, and find sustainable solutions for both wildlife and human

Two new cycloartanes from the leaves of Combretum quadrangulare growing in Vietnam and their biological activities

Two new cycloartanes, combretanones G and H (1 and 2), were isolated from the leaves of Combretum quadrangulare. Their structures were elucidated by applying a set of spectroscopic methods, while their relative configurations were determined using DFT-NMR chemical shift calculations and subsequent assignment of DP4 probabilities. Compounds 1 and 2 are C-23/C-24 stereoisomers of the previously-reported euphonerin E. Both exhibited moderate cytotoxicity against three human cancer cell lines. Compound 2 was shown to be a potent antiparasitic. Our results confirm the traditional medicinal uses of Combretum quadrangulare in Vietnam